COVID-19 Pandemic Impact Modeling

Terry Health’s pandemic impact model supports hospitals as they confront an uncertain recovery from COVID-19

April 16, 2020

Graphic describing the outputs and inputs of Terry Health's COVID-19 Pandemic Impact Modeling

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Hospitals are facing an historic squeeze.

Hospitals have been ramping up to meet the surge in COVID-19 patients, at a time when non-essential services have been shuttered, including elective surgeries and related procedures that often account for 20% to 40% of revenues. Hospital CFOs are increasingly concerned by the far-reaching financial consequences of COVID-19.

The biggest challenge facing hospitals is managing the mitigation and recovery process in the face of enormous uncertainty. What is the shape and duration of the surge? What is the timing and phasing-in of the recovery—and the resulting recoupment of lost revenues?

Terry Health has developed an interdisciplinary decision support tool that integrates epidemiological models with financial actuarial methodologies. This integrated tool is used to model the uncertainty of the post-COVID-19 recovery period. Terry Health’s tool uses a building block approach that identifies and organizes clinical, financial and operational variables that will impact hospitals in the near- and long-term.

Hospital leadership can customize the pandemic curve to their specific market and organization, to dynamically model multiple scenarios. These projections can then help forecast financial performance, and inform strategy and benchmarks for payer contracting, and inform decisions about operational readiness to resume deferred services.

Our model is a collaborative effort that reflects actuarial expertise—as well as clinical and operational experience—to assist our clients with planning to navigate the current crisis. This tool allows management to make educated course adjustments to achieve best outcomes. We work closely with our clients to tailor the model, since each hospital system has a different patient, clinical, and operational profile.

For further information about this innovative modeling approach, please contact:

Tom Donlon
Yi-Ling Lin
Maureen Tresnak
Dr. Fan Zhang